Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-09 4.213859 5.042062 5.962760 7.058250 8.322054 9.730023 11.412876
2025-03-16 2.790709 3.834450 5.132156 6.845845 9.028746 11.694151 15.169785
2025-03-23 2.143583 3.314904 4.914415 7.213178 10.378956 14.525501 20.295628
2025-03-30 1.639075 2.823049 4.581399 7.301826 11.305077 16.863246 25.018149
2025-04-06 1.273215 2.423589 4.268077 7.315642 12.067167 19.001484 29.638844
2025-04-13 1.002210 2.097276 3.983029 7.291255 12.722861 21.004975 34.210185
2025-04-20 0.890831 2.017120 4.073609 7.859725 14.335679 24.554070 41.339414
2025-04-27 0.755557 1.854604 3.983594 8.095585 15.416394 27.356544 47.537746
2025-05-04 0.655233 1.735224 3.945341 8.405037 16.636692 30.464094 54.431096
2025-05-11 0.542030 1.556272 3.754973 8.397021 17.286620 32.670149 60.014673
2025-05-18 0.427650 1.340294 3.444351 8.102902 17.371128 33.906523 64.060652
2025-05-25 0.330186 1.134674 3.111324 7.704667 17.199742 34.660130 67.312754
2025-06-01 0.270422 1.013625 2.950844 7.655789 17.722750 36.740705 73.106458
2025-06-08 0.216250 0.889453 2.756728 7.503912 18.025548 38.452185 78.394104
2025-06-15 0.196430 0.866516 2.812937 7.929774 19.563792 42.596680 88.358120
2025-06-22 0.167111 0.800143 2.739559 8.036264 20.431016 45.514057 96.240473
2025-06-29 0.139791 0.729325 2.637471 8.054974 21.105036 48.098590 103.657608
2025-07-06 0.115951 0.660895 2.525743 8.029813 21.673884 50.508850 110.885176
2025-07-13 0.111165 0.670488 2.652970 8.647563 23.773256 56.164002 124.700886
2025-07-20 0.098520 0.639638 2.646236 8.903704 25.050382 60.205864 135.576303
2025-07-27 0.088916 0.618700 2.667376 9.239466 26.547570 64.802073 147.793527
2025-08-03 0.074700 0.567009 2.572074 9.230796 27.206360 67.661813 156.683855
2025-08-10 0.058525 0.494027 2.381501 8.911742 27.058836 68.769067 162.072669